Nadhir Ben Rached, Fatma Benkhelifa, Abla Kammoun, Mohamed-Slim Alouini, and Raul Tempone, "Additional Results on the Hazard Rate Twisting-Based Simulation Approach", submitted to IEEE, 2014
Nadhir Ben Rached, Fatma Benkhelifa, Abla Kammoun, Mohamed-Slim Alouini, And Raul Tempone
Crude Monte Carlo, rare events, Importance Sampling, hazard rate twisting, asymptotically optimal, twisting parameter.
Estimating the probability that a sum of random variables (RVs) exceeds a given threshold is a well-known challenging problem. Closed-form expressions for the sum distribution do not generally exist, which has led to an increasing interest in simulation approaches. A crude Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is the standard technique for the estimation of this type of probability. However, this approach is computationally expensive, especially when dealing with rare events (i.e events with very small probabilities). An alternative approach to naive MC simulations is represented by the use of variance reduction techniques, known for their efficiency in requiring less computations for achieving the same accuracy requirement. Most of these methods have thus far been proposed to deal with specific settings under which the RVs belong to particular classes of distributions. In this paper, we propose a new Importance Sampling (IS) simulation technique based on the well-known hazard rate twisting approach, that presents the advantage of being asymptotically optimal for any arbitrary RVs. The wide scope of applicability of the proposed method is mainly due to our particular way of selecting the twisting parameter. It is worth observing that this interesting feature is rarely satisfied by variance reduction algorithms whose performances were only proven under some restrictive assumptions. It comes along with good efficiency, illustrated by some selected simulation results comparing the performance of our method with that of an algorithm based on a conditional MC technique.