Realistic scenario planning for solar power
Placing realistic bounds on solar power scenarios enables smarter grid planning and energy management.
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A framework that constrains solar power projections to physically achievable limits provides a more reliable basis for future energy planning. The uncertainty quantification framework developed by a KAUST-led team uses mathematically robust numerical methods to implement time-varying physical constraints[1]. This framework could support energy producers in scheduling reserves, planning trades, and designing reliable strategies.
“Grid operators and energy traders must make critical planning decisions in the face of variability as solar is integrated at scale,” says Raúl Tempone, who leads the Stochastic Numerics Research Group at KAUST. “Traditional uncertainty ranges for an official forecast can ignore physical upper and lower limits that occur over a day, which means that operators may be modelling unrealistic scenarios.”
“Our work puts physics back into the picture while keeping the math transparent and verifiable,” adds Tempone.
Scenario modelling enables operators to examine evolving production and reserves, helping them plan for realistic best- and worst-case futures. The primary objective is not to artificially narrow the range of futures, but to accurately characterize it so it is physically consistent and data-driven.
Read the full story on KAUST Discovery.
