nonlinearity

Statistical Analysis of Multi-day Solar Irradiance using a Threshold Time Series model

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B9 H2 R2325

Abstract The analysis of solar irradiance has important applications in predicting solar energy production from solar power plants. Although the sun provides every day more energy than we need, the variability caused by environmental conditions affects electricity production. Most of the existing statistical models to forecast solar irradiance are linear and highly depend on normality assumptions. However, solar irradiance shows strong non-linearity and is only measured during the day time. Thus, we propose a new multi-day threshold autoregressive (TAR) model to quantify the variability of the

Manifold Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Bayesian Inference In Diffusion Models

Prof. Alexandros Beskos, the Dept of Statistical Science, University College London (UCL)

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KAUST

Bayesian inference for nonlinear diffusions, observed at discrete times,is a challenging task that has prompted the development of a number of algorithms, mainly within the computational statistics community. We propose a new direction, and accompanying methodology - borrowing ideas from statistical physics and computational chemistry - for inferring the posterior distribution of latent diffusion paths and model parameters, given observations of the process