forecasting

Statistical Analysis of Multi-day Solar Irradiance using a Threshold Time Series model

-

B9 H2 R2325

Abstract The analysis of solar irradiance has important applications in predicting solar energy production from solar power plants. Although the sun provides every day more energy than we need, the variability caused by environmental conditions affects electricity production. Most of the existing statistical models to forecast solar irradiance are linear and highly depend on normality assumptions. However, solar irradiance shows strong non-linearity and is only measured during the day time. Thus, we propose a new multi-day threshold autoregressive (TAR) model to quantify the variability of the

Smart Meter Data-Driven Load Forecasting and Price Design in the Retail Market

-

KAUST

The widespread popularity of smart meters enables an immense amount of fine-grained smart meter data to be collected. Meanwhile, the deregulation of the power industry, particularly on the delivery side, has continuously been moving forward worldwide. Electricity retailer is one of the main participants in the retail market. This presentation will discuss how an electricity retailer can increase the competitiveness in the retail market by making full use of the fine-grained smart meter data. Since load forecasting is fundamental for various businesses of the retailer, the first part of this presentation will study how to enhance the performance of aggregated load forecasting using the fine-grained smart meter data. Designing customizing prices is an effective way to promote consumer interactions and increase customer stickiness for retailers. The second part of this presentation will introduce a novel data-driven approach for incentive-compatible customizing time-of-use (ToU) price design so that the benefits of both the retailer and consumers can be gained.

Cristian Felipe Jiménez Varón

Ph.D. Student, Statistics
Cristian Felipe Jiménez Varón is a Ph.D. candidate in the KAUST Environmental Statistics research group under the supervision of Professor Ying Sun. Before joining KAUST, Cristian obtained a master's degree in applied mathematics from the Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Manizales (UNAL), Colombia. He also holds dual bachelor's degrees in industrial engineering and chemical engineering from UNAL. Research Interests Cristian's research interests include the analysis of large volumes of data, statistical modeling and environmental statistics.